For weeks, Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson and his allies have been running a set of attack ads against Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes about crime.One ad focuses on violent crime . Copyright 2023 CBS Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. The senator has been tied to the fake elector scheme, which is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice, after text messages came to light showing Johnson's office tried to get slates of fake electoral ballots from Wisconsin and Michigan to former Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. Barnes to overcome his 27,374 vote deficit. The Republicans in both races hold a lead among independent voters, with Michels squeaking out a 1 point lead (44 percent to Evers 43) and Johnson dominating with 51 percent to Barnes 45. Tony Evers, 46 percent back Republican challenger Tim Michels, and 4 percent support independent Joan Belinger. In Wisconsin 's Senate race between Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Lt. Gov. Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes side by side. Hungry? Heres how you can help. The margin of error for the poll's likely voters sample is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. A pedestrian walks by a sign in front of a polling location on Tuesday, April 5, 2022, in Milwaukee, Wis. Angela Major/WPR. Barnes to overcome his 27,374 vote deficit. "Of course, we've said that before," Chergosky said. Both politicians were backed by 43 percent of likely voters. Barnes, 35, has seen his chances of unseating Sen. Johnson shrink by the day as crime becomes the central focus of their Senate race Recent polling shows Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is maintaining a slight edge over Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson just more than two months from the November election. In the September survey, Johnsons lead among that group was 48% to 46%. But despite the ex-senator leading in most public polling that year, he went on to narrowly lose to Johnson once again. Notably, the margin of error was 4.5 percentage points. Barnes has citedformer President Barack Obama as his inspiration for entering politics. On the presidential level, Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic nominee in every election from 1988 to 2020 except for 2016, when Trump narrowly defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Badger State. Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting. Mandela Barnes, CBS News is projecting Johnson the winner. The Democrat's lead was just outside the survey's 3 percent margin of error. Barnes enjoyed a 4-point lead over Johnson if the election were held today among all registered voters, and a 2-point lead in favorability. 33. 2022 Wisconsin Senate Debate: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson. Part of the shift can be attributed to likely independent voters. Legal Statement. National media reports say the red wave that Republicans hoped for in this years midterm elections has been downgraded to more of a trickle. Approximately 50% of likely voters said they support Johnson in the race, compared to 48% for Barnes, according to the Marquette poll of 679 likely voters. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. ", Lee said the value of political polling in Wisconsin has become less predictable as the state has become more "deep purple.". He said the August polling results from multiple sources show him "this is a very competitive race and Democrats have a compelling opportunity to unseat Ron Johnson.". Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News. The poll surveyed 803 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. One percent of respondents said they would vote for neither candidate and 1% said they were undecided. His campaign released a statement saying it has known all along this race "would be incredibly close.". "No matter what anyone says, we are committed to making sure every vote is counted. Through late October, super PACs, politically active nonprofit organizations, and other non-candidate groups combined to spend an additional $112.9 million advocating for or against the candidates. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. "Barnes is really going to have to execute a strong strategy of defining himself positively and pushing back against an enormous amount of negative campaigning that is already coming his way and will surely only escalate between now and Election Day," Chergosky said. Yorkshire Post. She won reelection with over 55 percent of the vote in 2018. Johnson won his first Senate race in 2010, unseating Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. The Marquette poll found that more voters had a favorable opinion of him than not, but 30 percent said they haven't heard enough about Barnes. Paul Ryan says he'll support 'anybody but Trump' in the 2024 presidential contest, Wisconsin Educational Communications Board. Mandela Barnes offers his state's votes to nominate former Vice President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president at the 2020 Democratic National Convention at the . Sign up now! Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson has won reelection to a third term, narrowly defeating Democratic Lt. Gov. More from. As a senator, Johnson co-sponsored theLife at Conception Act enshrining a right to life or the right to life of each born and preborn human person in the Constitution and allowing equal protections at the moment of fertilization. However, he also said during the campaign that he would support a recently offered proposal to create a single-issue referendum that would allow Wisconsin voters to decide on the future of abortion rights in the state. Barnes made an early bet to run as a progressive and largely did not move to the center. Morry Gash/Associated Press Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who was first elected during the conservative Tea Party wave in 2010, defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. C-SPAN, an acronym for Cable-Satellite Public Affairs Network, is an American cable television network that offers coverage of federal government proceedings and other public affairs programming via its three television channels (C-SPAN, C-SPAN2 and C-SPAN3), one radio station and a group of. Marquette's August survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Stay up to date with what you want to know. It was all to play for Thursday night as Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson met Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. Johnson leads with men and older voters.. Mandela Barnes cited a decade-old vote by Sen. Ron Johnson in favor of a balanced budget, but the best suggestion is cuts to law enforcement might have happened down the line as a. Just more than 3 percent of those surveyed were undecided. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Utah wildlife officials suggest catching this tasty invasive species, Oregon lawmakers propose bill that would give $1K per month to homeless people, Why Michigan Republicans are fretting about 2024, Democrats plot effort to counter Tucker Carlson on Jan. 6 narrative, Ticketmaster, PayPal, eBay are hassling customers to report sales even though the IRS says they dont have to, Biden to trigger tax fight Senate Democrats dont want, To topple Trump, GOP challengers lean on personality over policy, Pence disagrees with Haleys call for competency tests: The American people can sort that out, Biden mocks Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: Isnt she amazing?. It's looking all but certain that Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will be the Democratic opponent to take on the much-maligned Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson in November. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . 2016: Johnson (R) +3.4|2010: Johnson (R) +4.9, Senate Map,Polls,Projection|House Map,Polls,GenericVote|Governor Map,Polls,Projection|2022,'24 Polls, Senate Map,Polls,Projection|House Map,Polls,Generic Ballot|Governor Map,Polls,Projection|2022,'24 Polls, RCP Average:Johnson +3.6RCP Ranking:Toss UpRCP Projection:GOP HoldKey 2022 Races:Governor|Senate|WI-3, 2020:President|WI-32018:Governor|Senate|WI-1|WI-32016:President|Senate|WI-82014:Governor|WI-6|WI-72012:President|Governor (Recall)|Senate|WI-7|WI-82010:Governor|Senate|WI-3|WI-7|WI-8, All Wisconsin Senate - Johnson vs. Barnes Polling Data. The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Vermont Peter Welch (D) vs. Gerald Malloy (R) 34. Mandela Barnes. In 2016, Johnson stunned political observers when he defeated former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold after Marquette polling in late August showed Feingold ahead by 4 percentage points. AP Photo/Mike Roemer. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., left, and his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes shake hands before a televised debate, Friday, Oct. 7, 2022, in Milwaukee. Reach her at caitlin.yilek@cbsinteractive.com. All rights reserved. With less than 100 days to go before the . 2023 by Wisconsin Public Radio, a service of the Wisconsin Educational Communications Board and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Johnson, a former plastics executive and political ally of former President Donald Trump, has long tacked to the right in his voting record while representing Wisconsin a swing state that nonetheless retains a robust conservative base. Liberal groups in Wisconsin seeking to change rules governing absentee ballots suffered a blow this week after an appeals court and a circuit judge ruled that ballots cannot contain partial addresses of witnesses. For questions or comments, contact WPRs Audience Services at 1-800-747-7444, email listener@wpr.org or use our Listener Feedback form. Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. The new survey found Johnson up just 1 percentage point among likely Wisconsin voters, with 50 percent saying theyd learn toward the Republican if the election were held today and 49 percent saying the same of Barnes. A Fox News poll released Aug. 18 had Barnes with 50 percent of the support of likely voters and Johnson trailing with 46 percent. Market data provided by Factset. Editor's note: WPR's Jonah Chester, Joe Schulz and Andrea Anderson contributed reporting to this story. Leaders expect it to keep growing. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. FOX NEWS POLL: POLARIZATION DEFINES THE MIDTERM ELECTION. Wisconsin Lt. Gov. The Wisconsin Senate race is a virtual toss-up, with Republican Sen. Ron Johnson edging Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes within the margin of error in a Marquette University Law School poll. These four House Republicans broke with the GOP to oppose inflation estimates McCarthy, GOP pump brakes on release of Jan. 6 footage to Tucker Carlson, Christie: Trump grand jury foreperson did a lot of damage to case. Analyzing the Wisconsin Senate and governor's races, the poll found both races deadlocked: Mr Barnes trails incumbent Sen Ron Johnson by. The Marquette Law Poll was conducted from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1 via landline and cell phone. Mandela Barnes on Tuesday. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is increasing his lead over Lt. Gov. Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson, right, and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes participate during a televised debate Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, in Milwaukee. Washington Patty Murray (D) vs. Tiffany Smiley (R) 35. 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